According to the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations (IHME) the Covid-19 surge in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh could push global infections to 15 million a day by mid-May before stabilising.
In July 2020, the institute had predicted Covid-19 death toll in the United States to exceed 200,000 by November 2020. The forecast turned out to be accurate even though it had been initially rejected by the Trump administration that claimed the figure could be contained to within a 100,000.
As of now, US Covid-19 deaths have exceeded 573,000 while infections have climbed to more than 32 million, the highest in the world.
Based on the IMHE’s latest projection, the daily death toll in India could continue climbing until mid-May, peaking at 13,000 a day — more than four times the current daily death toll.
In Pakistan alone, infections may peak to 240,000 by Aug. 1 while the death toll could rise to 28,549.
Of these, 5,639 Covid-19 deaths could occur in Sindh, 12,460 in Punjab, 6,978 KP, 796 in Balochistan, 115 in Gilgit-Baltistan, 1,088 in AJK and 1,473 in the Islamabad capital territory.
It was noted that the surge was now spreading to Nepal.
According to the IHME, India’s coronavirus outbreak might be far worse than what is being reported as the infection detection rate is below 5 percent. “This means that the number of cases that are being detected needs to be multiplied by 20 or more to get the number of infections that are occurring in India.”
“This huge epidemic is likely to continue at least into the second week of May, but given the extraordinary volume of infections in India, Covid-19 may run out of people to infect soon,” the institute projected. “Our models are suggesting that transmission may start to decline in India as we get into the latter half of May.”
Commenting on official statistics provided by regional governments, IHME noted that cases elsewhere in South Asia had peaked and started to come down — particularly in Bangladesh.
“But we think that might be a reporting artifact from the Ramadan period, where fewer people may be seeking to be tested, and/or there may be lags in the data,” the report added.
“So, we’ll watch very closely the trends in Bangladesh and Pakistan.”
From : pk.mashable.com
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